Saturday, October 8, 2022

Risers and Sinkers

After just one week of preseason basketball we have some pretty major shiftings-around going on. So here are some Risers and some Sinkers.


Risers


Christian Wood - This guy was already pretty high on my board, but he's gotten even higher. In the two games the Mavs have played so far he's come off the bench to give first a 16 point 13 rebound show and second a 23 point outing. He's doing nothing shy of preparing his case to be the number one overall pick


Sam Hauser - It is only the preseason and we're not allowed to overreact to the preseason, but 14 points in 19 minutes and 22 points in 26 minutes is a helluva first two games of the year for this ascendant bench player. It earned him a starting spot in the Celtic's next preseason outing (albeit against the Hornets) where he played 24 minutes. With or without the absence of Timelord, the buzz (and by "buzz" I mean what Bill Simmons says) around Hauser is that he's a part of the rotation. And, for our purposes, he's a perfect mid-to-late-round swing because he's in no danger of starting


Dennis Schroeder - In a storyline that has completely evaded me, Schroeder's been stuck in Germany for the first week of preseason with Visa issues. The Lakers finally have Kendrick Nunn, who's looking good. That, coupled with the memories of the last time Schroeder started for LA, would seem to secure his bench spot, and thereby boost his stock in our league to the solid backup PG this former sixth man can really be. 2nd round potential


Zeke Nnaji - Notching 20+ minutes in both Nuggets preseason games so far, Zeke makes this list for two reasons: 1-The Nuggets are too good a team with too high of hopes to be okay with playing DeAndre Jordan a bunch (or even a little) and 2- Zach Lowe mentioned him on his podcast. Nnaji (6'9, 240, 21-years-old) is in a great situation to play good minutes with a very talented bench. Look for him in the 5th or 6th round if you still need a big


Precious Achiuwa - In spite of a preseason where Toronto's really giving every player a shot (seriously go look at the minutes for their first game; crazy evenly distributed) Achiuwa still seems to fit exactly what they want: 6'8, 225, hustle. I thought the Heat were a little crazy to include him in the Lowry trade, and I think he proved me right last year. Look for quality minutes as the Raptors keep playing their futuristic lineups. 4th rounder, could easily go higher


Onyeka Okongwu - I don't actually know how my stock can get higher on this guy. Go back and look through my phone and you'll see texts of me wanting the Hornets to take him with the third overall pick the year we took LaMelo. Am I happy we didn't do that? Yes. Am I bummed that the next closest team landed the guy I wanted in the draft, who then bodied up Giannis in a playoff game and is garnering attention from actual sports journalists now? Absolutely. If the first preseason game is any indication (Capella started but Okongwu played 7 more minutes than him and put up 11 points and 7 rebounds) just stay out of my way and let me pick him too early


Jalen Duren - Is this list just becoming guys the Hornets didn't draft? Maybe. Although Duren didn't play the Piston's second game, in his first outing as a Piston he grabbed 14 rebounds in 24 minutes. That's more than a rebound every 2 minutes. You get up to take a piss during this game and Duren's grabbed another board. This is peak overreacting, but with his athleticism, Duren's one of the more confident upside picks who could find himself going as early as the third round in our draft


Obi Toppin - Initially not on my radar because I thought the Knicks might actually listen to their fan base and start him. But based on two preseason games, he's looking like he'll stay the electric bench player he was last year. Which, for us, is excellent. If dunks counted for double points, this guy would be the number one overall. Also, look out for some Loophole Starts with him if the Knicks season goes a little wobbly. An iffy 3rd or 4th rounder who's playing his way into 2nd round contention


RJ Hampton - Wouldn't have thought with all the Magic's depth at guard that I'd be suggesting somebody take Hampton in the later rounds, but my god every guard Orlando has is hurt [See Sinkers - Cole Anthony and Terrance Ross]. If you're late in the draft and just need someone who's gonna play real minutes for the start of the season, snag Hampton


Brandon Clarke - It feels like I should've put the Sinkers first because ya'll are gonna read my dramatic lineup findings in reverse. Regardless, based on the first three preseason games, Memphis look like they're going with Aldama in the starting lineup [See Sinkers - Santi Aldama] which is nothing if not wonderful news for Brandon Clarke fans. He's an absolute pogo stick off the bench who will get big minutes and make some serious plays. I love him in the 2nd round


Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Landry Shamet - Two dudes who could realistically have been drafted before Payne and Johnson got hurt who have a chance to see some real early season minutes. Neither Payne's nor Johnson's injuries seem to be serious, but if you're nerding out over this league and you think you can get a real advantage with Shamet's extra time on the floor and Timothe's sporadic usefulness, knock yourself out and take one of these guys in the mid-to-late rounds


Sinkers


Jordan Poole - As much as I think a hard punch to the face from a teammate would motivate a young, competitive guy like Poole, I'm worried about the vacuum in the starting lineup after what feels like an inevitable suspension for Draymond. Bobby Portis (who keeps tweeting that we should leave him out of this) got suspended 8 games for punching a teammate in a much better situation than this. Feels like the Warriors could give Draymond 10 pretty easily. That raises the question of how the Warriors will start those games, and one of the best options they have is to drop Wiggins to the 4 and play the Poole Party lineup with Steph, Klay, and Poole. Which would obviously make Poole ineligible for our league until Draymond comes back and reclaims that starting spot. Unless the Warriors do better without him (which seems unlikely but definitely possible) in which case Poole might have worked his way into a starting spot and out of our league (again, this seems unlikely. But it creates enough uncertainty for Poole's stock to falter (by "falter" I mean still absolutely take him in the first round, just be wary that you might have to bench him for the start of the season))


Jonathon Kuminga - Kum Buckets is another natural replacement for Draymond. Again, this is all speculative at this point, and Kuminga should absolutely be drafted, but if he can't play for us the first couple of weeks because he's starting that could bump him down into the lower rounds. And god forbid he's taken a leap and the team's doing well with him in the lineup when Draymond comes back (is there anything better than a player punching his teammate days before the season starts?)


Josh Hart - Starting one preseason game hardly means you'll start the regular season, but starting the very first preseason game, and playing well, on a team that could use defensive flexibility and the general winning plays Hart provides...well, that's grounds enough to make me wonder. Monitor this situation, though, because if Hart's not starting he's got 2nd round talent


Nic Claxton - Two games in and it really looks like the Nets want to make the Simmons Claxton thing work. I get it defensively, but I guess they've just got enough offense with their other three starters to make up for the terrible shooting and worse free throw shooting of that duo. Claxton starting brings some other players on the Nets into consideration for us (Royce O'Neale and Day'Ron Sharpe) but neither of them have the upside for me that Claxton would've brought


Cole Anthony and Terrance Ross - Magic guards are dropping like flies. Fultz is out indefinitely with a toe, Harris is out indefinitely after knee surgery in August, and now Suggs is out indefinitely with a knee. Anthony's the logical replacement in the starting lineup, and Ross has started the last two games. A real shame for the Magic and us for the foreseeable future as these two can get buckets


Santi Aldama - Can't believe I'm saying this, but it really looks like the Grizzlies are gonna fill the JJJ injury hole with... Santi Aldama. He's started the first three preseason games and he's been running with the other actual starters. Tough stuff for anyone who was looking to steal him in the 7th round. Great news for Brandon Clarke fans, though!


Boogie Cousins - There's still time, but the number of teams who need a backup center that haven't reached out to Boogie is damning. Looks like he might just get to wait around and stay healthy until closer to January when someone will get hurt or a dream-chasing team will need depth. Keep a weather eye out for him, but don't draft him


Cam Payne and Dario Saric- There's been no update on the finger and thumb injuries Payne and Johnson suffered the other day, but the Suns plan to re-evaluate them next week. Payne still be worth drafting, but we'll see just how long he's out to see how high he should go. Johnson (a starter this year) affects Saric's stock. Dario should still be drafted and should still play plenty of bench minutes, but much like Payne, the potential roster shakeup early on might sideline him for our purposes for a little while

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